The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release August CPI data on September 11, and this macro event has become the pivotal factor driving HYPE's price trajectory. After peaking at $89.60, the asset encountered selling pressure and retreated to around $79, precisely touching the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The price has since consolidated near this boundary without experiencing a deep decline, currently hovering in the $77-$79 range, an area that previously served as a double-top resistance zone.
HYPE is currently trading at approximately $78.90, slightly above this resistance band. Market attention has shifted from whether the asset can directly set new highs to whether buyers can establish a defense above the $77-$79 level and subsequently reclaim the $85 region, which would confirm this move as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, if support fails, the first downside target would be the 50-day simple moving average at $68, followed by the 100-day moving average at $66. Although both moving averages remain upward-sloping, their relatively low positions reflect the market's failure to pass the first support test after hitting channel resistance.
The daily chart reveals that since the August low, HYPE has posted a series of higher lows while the RSI indicator has recorded progressively lower lows, forming a hidden bullish divergence. The current RSI reading stands at approximately 51, well below the overbought levels seen during the push toward $90. This structure of waning momentum alongside an intact trend provides technical support for potential upside, provided the price holds above the current support zone.
On the macro expectations front, a Reuters survey of economists indicates the market anticipates headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI to advance 0.2%, with year-over-year projections of 3.4% for headline and 2.4% for core inflation. Rich Privorotsky, head of One Delta trading at Goldman Sachs Europe, noted in MarketWatch that if core CPI maintains an increase of around 0.25%, it would draw significant market attention given its direct implications for interest rate expectations. Even minor deviations from forecasts could prompt investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path, potentially triggering sharp volatility.
For HYPE, while the CPI report is not a token-specific event, it will profoundly influence risk appetite across cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets. A benign data release could help HYPE defend the $77-$79 range and resume its advance toward the $85 region. Conversely, hotter-than-expected data could ignite strong risk-off sentiment and test the validity of this support area.
If HYPE manages to hold its ground amid the volatility, it would confirm that the previous double-top pattern has successfully transformed into a support base rather than a failed breakout. In that scenario, the likelihood of another push toward the $89-$90 zone would increase significantly. Until then, the stability of the support level matters more than channel targets.