On September 11, gold experienced a sharp decline during the previous trading session. The price initially rebounded at the open, reaching an intraday high of $4,434 in late Asian trading—coinciding precisely with the short entry zone near $4,430 highlighted in the morning analysis. The decline began during the European session, with prices dropping to above $4,320. The short position was closed with a profit near $4,340, locking in gains of approximately $90. Gold ultimately settled at $4,317, printing a bearish daily candle.

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. August CPI report will be released—the final major inflation data point before the FOMC meeting on September 17. Market expectations call for headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month with a 3.4% year-over-year reading, unchanged from the prior month. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.

Scenario one: CPI beats expectations. If headline CPI exceeds 3.4% year-over-year, or core CPI rises more than 0.2% month-over-month, it would signal that inflation stickiness is stronger than the market anticipates. The probability of a September rate hike could climb back above 60%, putting further pressure on gold. In this case, the first support to watch is $4,300, with a break opening the door to $4,250–$4,200.

Scenario two: CPI matches expectations. If headline CPI comes in at 3.4% and core at 2.5% year-over-year, the market has already priced in this outcome. Gold may initially fluctuate, then revert to trading based on interest rate and oil price dynamics. The precious metal would likely remain range-bound between $4,380 and $4,430.

Scenario three: CPI misses expectations. If headline CPI falls below 3.3% year-over-year, or core CPI comes in under 0.2% month-over-month, the evidence of cooling inflation would strengthen. This could push September rate hike odds lower, giving gold a window to rebound toward the $4,450–$4,480 zone.

From a technical perspective, overnight trading saw the first sharp leg down following the European Central Bank rate decision and PPI data release. After dropping to around $4,325, the price bounced but was rejected near $4,375 as expected, confirming renewed selling pressure. This price action affirms the market's growing conviction in Fed rate hikes and validates gold's shift into a weak posture. During Asian and European trading hours today, any rebound is unlikely to gain significant traction. Near-term resistance sits around $4,355, with the primary ceiling at last night's bounce high near $4,375.

For intraday strategy, given the strengthening rate hike expectations driven by multiple factors, the bias remains toward selling into rallies. However, with tonight's CPI release pending, aggressive traders may position ahead of the data, while conservative traders should wait for the reaction before adjusting strategies.

In summary, during the first 5–10 minutes after CPI is released, the most common pattern involves an initial sharp spike or dump, followed by a counter-sweep, before the true direction emerges. Avoid chasing the move the instant data prints. Tonight's CPI represents the final "answer" before the September rate decision. Keep positions light before the release, and wait for direction confirmation before committing. Enjoy the weekend—next week is the true battle.

Recommended intraday approach: Sell gold at $4,340–$4,335, stop loss at $4,350, targeting $4,280–$4,250, holding on a break lower. If the price reclaims $4,355, abandon the short and flip long, targeting higher levels sequentially.

Key economic data and events for September 11, 2026, Friday at 20:30: U.S. August unadjusted CPI year-over-year; U.S. August seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month; U.S. August seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month; U.S. August unadjusted core CPI year-over-year. At 22:00: U.S. September one-year inflation expectations (preliminary); U.S. September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary).

Disclaimer: This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk.