The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran is forcing Saudi Arabia to repeatedly revise its strategies for maintaining crude oil shipments, with recent data revealing a significant drop in exports.

According to Peter Sand, a shipping analyst at data firm Xeneta, confidence in the Red Sea route that had persisted before the latest escalation has now clearly evaporated. The stability of Saudi oil supplies is crucial for global energy prices, yet export volumes are already under considerable strain. Data from maritime intelligence provider Kpler shows that Saudi oil exports fell to 3.2 million barrels per day last month, marking the lowest level in at least 13 years. The firm also reported that only two Saudi tankers transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait into the Red Sea during the past week.

These challenges emerge as attacks between the US and Iran intensify, with oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel on Wednesday. Iran has stated it launched missiles at a US military base in Jordan and fired on two US Navy destroyers in retaliation for American strikes, while the US military claims its operations destroyed five Iranian oil tankers.

Dimitris Maniatis, founder of maritime risk firm Marisks, reported that a drone strike on a vessel near UAE waters on Wednesday killed one US sailor, with another person still missing. Recent attacks by Houthi forces, combined with escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, are forcing further shifts in trade flows, underscoring how the conflict with Iran has disrupted established commercial shipping routes. Maniatis noted, "For commercial shipping, the core concern now isn't just the number of attacks, but the expanding range of targets and geographic scope."

Local security officials say that fighting in Yemen has intensified over the past week, with Houthi forces attempting to seize territory to tighten their grip on Red Sea shipping lanes. Allison Minor, a former US deputy envoy to Yemen, stated that since the Houthis announced a blockade on shipping to Saudi Arabia via the Red Sea on July 20, the group has claimed responsibility for at least seven attacks on vessels heading to or from Saudi ports. In late August, a Saudi tanker was attacked in the central Red Sea, an area previously considered the safest alternative route outside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Maniatis emphasized that this attack demonstrates the threat extends beyond the southern Red Sea waters near Yemen. While vessels unaffiliated with Saudi Arabia can still transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the volume of passages has declined. Data from maritime services firm Leth Agencies shows that daily transits through the strait averaged just 35 ships in August, the lowest level since July 2025.

Minor, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that the Houthis have explicitly stated the Red Sea remains open to ships with no links to Saudi Arabia, aiming to avoid provoking US retaliation. However, Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for the Middle East at the Royal United Services Institute in London, says the latest round of escalation between Riyadh and the Houthis is still raising concerns across global trade. Dr. Ozcelik commented, "The Bab el-Mandeb Strait doesn't need to be physically closed to generate sustained economic shocks."

Following the Houthi attacks in late 2023, several major shipping companies have completely avoided the Red Sea, opting instead for the lengthy route around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope for Asia-to-Europe voyages. Ozcelik added, "The Houthi actions are benefiting Iran either directly or indirectly. Should a full-scale war break out, global energy supplies could face severe consequences."