Economists at Bank of America Securities anticipate that Turkey's central bank will hold its policy rate unchanged until April 2027 following a single potential reduction next month. The forecast, led by economist Hande Kucuk, suggests a 100 basis point cut from the current 37% level in October, provided September inflation does not surprise to the upside and oil prices refrain from further gains.

The bank projects September monthly inflation at 2.1%. In a research note dated September 10, Kucuk noted that the supportive base effects seen in November and December are likely to fade, shifting market attention toward year-end wage adjustments anticipated in early 2027.

Bank of America forecasts Turkey's year-end policy rate at 36%, with inflation concluding the year at 29.5%. Looking further ahead, the bank projects the policy rate at 32% and inflation at 26% by the end of 2027.