Over the past several months, Trump has repeatedly dismissed the so-called cost-of-living burden as a "scam," insisting the U.S. economy is thriving under his leadership. Yet polling numbers suggest Americans are unimpressed with his performance. Facing declining approval ratings, Trump has offered voters a deal: hand Republicans a win at the ballot box, and a $5,000 check could be yours.
At Wednesday's Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump unveiled this proposal with great fanfare but offered no specifics—an omission that makes sense given the plan's price tag would exceed $1 trillion, rendering it highly unlikely to become law. Republican colleagues have already shot down his idea of funding a "dividend" through tariff revenue, and any such payout would require congressional approval. Trump declared, "It will be called the Trump Dividend. All we have to do now is win the election."
U.S. public debt broke through $40 trillion for the first time in recent weeks, with borrowing costs climbing steadily. Following Trump's remarks, Treasury futures traded flat, signaling that bond traders see this "dividend" plan as having near-zero odds of materializing. The event also featured other equally improbable promises, including making tax cuts permanent and eliminating credit card swipe fees.
These moves suggest that the risk of midterm losses is pushing Trump's rhetoric into increasingly desperate territory. Should Republicans lose control of Congress, he would quickly become a "lame duck," while lawmakers could launch extensive investigations into his administration and family dealings. That said, this proposal may not constitute outright "vote buying," as it targets all adult American citizens. The Supreme Court has ruled that politicians can make broad policy promises, and Trump's pitch largely resembles a pledge to deliver tax relief.
Steven Okun, a former Clinton administration official and current CEO of APAC Advisors, noted, "Independent and swing voters will see it as a political gimmick, not a solution to their cost-of-living problems. Trump could end up shooting himself in the foot. With national debt at record levels, every Republican candidate on the ballot must now take a stance on this." Trump's allies have already begun exploring adjustments to the plan. Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas said he expects lawmakers to debate the plan's impact on the fiscal deficit, suggesting a version tied to work requirements for recipients might be more palatable. Cruz remarked, "This highlights the stakes of the midterms."
Strategist Mark Cudmore observed, "The market's overall reaction is very muted because everyone thinks the probability of this happening is almost zero. The U.S. economy is strong and at risk of overheating. Adding fiscal stimulus of this scale while financing conditions are already strained would only amplify the issues markets are focused on, including weaker Treasuries, a softer dollar, and capital flowing into commodities and real assets."
During the marathon speech, which stretched past 100 minutes in prime time, Trump pleaded with voters to treat the upcoming election as if his own name were on the ballot. The tactic aims to energize independents and low-propensity voters, groups that proved crucial to his two presidential victories. Standing on stage at the American Airlines Center, Trump declared, "Your vote will determine whether our nation stumbles and staggers at the starting line of the next 250 years, or charges forward without looking back."
However, voters broadly express dissatisfaction with Trump's handling of the economy and the Iran conflict. Many Republican candidates locked in competitive races skipped the two-day Texas gathering. As Trump delivered his prime-time address, the NFL season opener kicked off, leaving visible empty seats in the venue.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement, "The biggest political liability in America right now is Donald Trump, and he just proved it again. Republicans now have to defend his disastrous, rambling speech—an obvious sideshow designed to soothe Trump's fragile ego. Tonight was a desperate attempt by Republicans who can't face the reality that their candidates may lose in November."
On the first day of the convention, attendees held signs emblazoned with American flags and "Made in the USA" slogans. Trump mocked Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton's attire and speaking style during his remarks, despite his political team pouring millions into supporting Paxton. He touted his administration's efforts on illegal immigration and tax cuts, then veered off-topic as usual—into the construction of the White House ballroom and his own crowd-drawing abilities. Trump said, "I don't think anyone has accomplished as much in two years as we have. But I have to say, no matter how well a president does—Democrat or Republican—almost no one wins the midterms. So I'm asking you to pretend my name is on the ballot. Just pretend I'm on it."
Trump earlier admitted to reporters that efforts to lower gas prices might not yield results until after the midterms. He revisited that point in his speech, urging voters to keep faith and support his agenda. He added, "Four or five years from now, when this country is booming, I hope you remember me and that I was the one who set it in motion." During the address, he highlighted his achievements, including tax reform, a deal on prescription drug price reductions, and higher energy output. It was essentially an attempt to mobilize his base to turn out in November, though such appeals may fall flat with voters worried about living costs and war.
The speech also meandered across a wide array of topics, including baseball legend Babe Ruth, the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, Venezuelan oil, and Iran. Trump falsely claimed a massive crowd was gathered outside the venue unable to get in. When the speech ran well past the hour mark, he asserted no one had left—even as attendees were steadily filtering out.
Trump has pledged a heavy travel schedule in the weeks before the midterms to boost Republican candidates in tight races, estimating around 35 appearances on Wednesday. However, he also hinted some campaign events might be virtual, and his past promises of in-person appearances have not always been kept. Trump has directed his political action committee to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars raised to support key candidates, including $10 million for Paxton. Yet Paxton's Democratic opponent, James Talarico, boasts a stronger war chest.
In his speech, Trump targeted several prominent Democratic candidates running for office, branding them "radicals" and launching attacks on their personal lives and politics, laced with crude language. He sought to exploit divisions between the Democratic Party's moderate and progressive wings, framing victories by candidates tied to the Democratic Socialists of America as evidence that the party is embracing socialism and communism.
Recent trade measures have further intensified election pressure while stoking internal Republican friction. A plan to ease beef import tariff quotas has angered Republican lawmakers from agricultural states, while a trade war with Canada has frustrated those in northern border states.
Attendees listen to Trump speak on the first day of the Republican midterm convention.