Ethereum's price has retreated to the $2,400 vicinity after touching a high of $2,546, with the pullback triggered by robust macroeconomic data from the United States. The August non-farm payrolls figure surged to 162,000, significantly outpacing the consensus estimate of 56,000 and marking a sharp acceleration from July's meager 21,000 gain.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6%. These stronger-than-expected fundamentals have compelled traders to reassess their risk exposure, placing downward pressure on risk assets including Ethereum. Notably, data from the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of rates climbing to the 3.75% to 4% range has risen from 49% to 60%, with higher rate expectations acting as a substantial headwind for speculative assets.
However, the technical picture has not turned entirely bearish. The confluence of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages has established a solid support zone between $2,069 and $2,175. Although the momentum indicator sits at 61, suggesting room for further upside, the MACD has flipped negative, signaling that bullish momentum is waning.
A more critical variable lies in the activity of large wallets: one address has offloaded 167,855 ETH valued at approximately $408 million. Of that total, 70,739 coins have moved to exchanges including OKX, Binance, and Bybit, while the remaining 97,115 ETH stays parked in the wallet, fueling concerns over near-term selling pressure.
Institutional inflows, however, are effectively counterbalancing this supply overhang. Thursday saw a single-day net inflow of $148 million into spot Ethereum ETFs, bringing cumulative inflows to $13 billion with net assets approaching $16 billion. The pace of inflows is clearly accelerating: July recorded $365 million, August jumped to $1.85 billion, and September has already added $104 million.
On-chain metrics are also flashing positive signals. The MVRV ratio broke above 1.00 on August 21, ending a 200-day stretch below that threshold, which means that at the current actual price of around $2,300, the average holder has entered profitable territory. This divergence between fundamental headwinds and capital flows provides an underlying rationale for price stabilization.
Technical analyst Axel Kibar notes that the ETH/USD pair may be forming a bullish flag pattern near current resistance levels. The price is currently trading in a tight consolidation range around $2,438. If confirmed, this pattern would suggest that the market, having digested the macroeconomic negatives, could leverage robust ETF buying to stage a fresh breakout. Investors are closely monitoring the direction of this consolidation range to determine their entry timing.