The outlook for shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly uncertain. Amid renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, one of the world's largest oil tanker operators, Japan's Mitsui OSK Lines, has cautioned that a return to normal operations in the strait may take far longer than previously anticipated, with the prospect of normalization within this year now significantly diminished.

In an interview on Thursday, MOL Chief Executive Jotaro Tamura stated, "Given the current situation, it is difficult to foresee a return to normal operations in any form within this year." He also noted that the current level of risk "far exceeds the company's acceptable threshold," adding that the firm has no immediate plans to resume routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Tamura indicated that a decision to restart operations would only be considered following a clear de-escalation of tensions and upon receiving guarantees and evidence of sustainable safe passage.

This statement has directly impacted market expectations regarding the recovery of Middle East oil supplies. Over the past several weeks, an increase in "dark fleet" transits had fueled some optimism about a gradual rebound in Persian Gulf oil flows, but this week's deterioration in the situation has introduced fresh threats to that fragile recovery momentum.

Shipping Recovery Faces New Hurdles; Japan Accelerates Alternative Energy Corridor Plans

In its quarterly earnings report last month, MOL had projected that Strait of Hormuz shipping would "gradually resume from October 2026 and achieve full normalization by January 2027." However, the sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions this week has cast greater uncertainty over that timeline.

Reports indicate that since the latest escalation, the daily number of visibly tracked vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to just a handful. Although the recent uptick in "dark fleet" movements had helped facilitate the flow of additional oil out of the Persian Gulf while evading controls, the newest round of heightened tensions may once again deter some shipping operators.

As a major energy-importing nation, Japan is actively responding to supply risks arising from the Hormuz crisis. According to reports, Japan is formulating plans to diversify its energy imports, including provisions to support the construction of Middle East pipelines aimed at rerouting exported oil away from the Strait of Hormuz and establishing alternative transport corridors.