Global markets witnessed a stark divergence in early trading today, with the domestic A-share market showing widespread weakness as 5,177 stocks recorded declines. Simultaneously, the commodity complex displayed contrasting movements, with crude oil futures staging a significant rally while the precious metals complex faced downward pressure, highlighting a notable shift in market risk sentiment.

Crude oil prices surged dramatically in morning trading, with SC crude oil futures leading the energy sector's gains and extending the strong momentum seen in overnight overseas markets. According to Chen Dong, a senior energy researcher at Baocheng Futures, the core driver behind this oil price surge is the renewed intense escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The ongoing US-Iran maritime confrontation has intensified, with Iran intercepting US unmanned vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the US forcing commercial ships to change course, dramatically increasing shipping risks in this critical waterway. Combined with the persistent tensions in the Red Sea, global crude oil maritime logistics have been severely disrupted, rapidly heightening market expectations of supply disruptions and triggering a comprehensive geopolitical risk premium.

Chen noted that overnight Brent crude prices on international exchanges surged sharply, breaking through the $100 per barrel mark with strong momentum, providing substantial external premium support for domestic oil prices. Additionally, the fundamental picture for crude oil is providing supportive tailwinds. "Overseas crude oil inventories continue to decline, OPEC+ production cut agreements remain in effect, and the global supply-demand balance for crude oil remains tight, further amplifying bullish momentum," Chen explained. He added that domestic refiners are entering the autumn peak operating season, with steady recovery in crude oil demand, relatively low port inventory levels, and tight spot market fundamentals, all contributing to accelerating upward movement in crude oil futures prices.

Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) reading has weighed heavily on precious metals prices. The August US PPI exceeded market expectations and showed a clear acceleration compared to July. Precious metals prices plunged overnight, with spot gold in London falling nearly 2% to below $4,350 per ounce, while spot silver dropped more than 5%. According to Xiao Jingyu, a precious metals researcher at Xinhua Futures, following the release of the US PPI data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have rebounded to above 70%, with a full pricing of rate hike operations before October, prompting a sharp decline in precious metals prices.

Xiao believes that the US August inflation data scheduled for release tonight will serve as a more decisive market variable. Current market expectations project the overall US CPI to rise 3.4% year-over-year in August, with core CPI up 2.4% annually; on a monthly basis, CPI is expected to rise 0.4% and core CPI 0.2%. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the investment logic for precious metals has not undergone fundamental changes. Rising global sovereign credit risks, geopolitical tensions, and the deepening of the "de-dollarization" process all provide solid structural support for precious metals prices. The US-Iran conflict not only intensifies US fiscal pressure but also damages allied interests, accelerating the widening cracks in the old international order, thereby reinforcing the strategic allocation value of precious metals in the medium-to-long term.

Looking ahead for crude oil, Chen believes the current market movement is dominated by geopolitical sentiment, with supply-demand fundamentals playing a supporting role. In the short term, there are no signs of easing in Middle East tensions, suggesting the strong oil price pattern will persist. However, this rally carries a highly sentiment-driven character—if geopolitical tensions cool at the margin, the risk premium could rapidly dissipate, potentially causing prices to quickly give back earlier gains.

On the macro front, US Treasury yields across various maturities experienced significant increases on the 10th, influenced by the Treasury Department's buyback program falling short of expectations and notably higher international oil prices. Data shows the 2-year Treasury yield, which is highly correlated with short-term interest rates, rose 14.2 basis points to close at 4.588%. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12.5 basis points to close at 4.969%, marking its highest level since October 19, 2023. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed 7.5 basis points to settle at 5.368%, reaching levels not seen since June 2007. According to information released by the CME FedWatch Tool on the afternoon of the 10th, the probability of the Fed implementing a 25-basis-point rate hike at next week's policy meeting has risen to 71.3%, up from 61.2% the previous day.