NIO Inc. closed at USD 3.58, down 3.24 percent.

Despite the slide, NIO’s options market showed a standout long-dated bullish trade. A single buyer paid $146 thousand for 12,200 call contracts at the $4.00 strike expiring on 2026-10-16. With the stock around $3.62 at the time, this was an out-of-the-money position built for a major recovery, while overall call volume dwarfed puts by a ratio of 4.63.

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Options Indicators

NIO’s implied volatility stands at 72.51%, and with an IV percentile of 62.95%, current option volatility is best viewed as neutral rather than stretched. That said, the IV/HV ratio of 2.03 shows implied volatility is running well above historical realized volatility, meaning the options market is embedding materially richer forward volatility expectations than the stock has recently delivered. In practical terms, NIO options are not in a bargain zone, but they are also not at an extreme premium level based on their own historical range.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 4.63.

Large Trades

A call buy worth $146 thousand was the standout large trade, with 12,200 contracts bought on the $4.00 strike expiring on 2026-10-16. With NIO referenced at $3.62, the option was out of the money at execution, making this a clearly bullish directional bet that seeks upside through a relatively low-premium, high-convexity structure. The choice to buy upside calls rather than sell puts or use a spread suggests the trader was positioning for a meaningful rally while keeping risk strictly limited to the premium paid.

Overall, the large-trade flow points to a bullish outlook on NIO. The order flow was entirely one-sided toward upside exposure, and the use of outright call buying indicates a preference for leveraged participation in a future advance rather than income generation or downside protection. That pattern typically reflects constructive sentiment and expectations for higher share prices over time.

Strategy Reference

For those preferring to sell premium despite the bullish order flow, the $2.50 put expiring in the same long-dated cycle offers a high-probability cash-secured put candidate with low assignment likelihood, though the rich IV environment also supports a bull call spread such as buying the $4.00 call and selling the $6.00 call to offset the elevated implied volatility cost.