Hong Kong Stocks in Focus: Mainland Real Estate Shares Slide Again as Institutions Flag Structural Headwinds on Scale and Profitability

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Yesterday

Mainland China property developers listed in Hong Kong extended their losses during Tuesday's session, with several major names trading in negative territory. As of the time of writing, SUNAC (01918) fell 4.35% to HK$0.55, while C&D INTL GROUP (01908) dropped 2.09% to HK$12.2. SEAZEN (01030) also declined 2.81% to HK$1.385, with the weakness spreading across the sector as investor sentiment remained fragile.

Ping An Securities noted in a recent research report that the real estate sector initially dipped before staging a modest recovery, with the effects of the "828 policy" gradually becoming more apparent. The brokerage highlighted that investors are primarily concerned about how the shift toward selling completed properties, rather than pre-sales, may weigh on developers' scale and return on equity. On one hand, the transition to completed-property sales delays cash collections, requiring developers to commit their own capital for longer periods, which could shrink the sales scale that the same level of equity capital can support. On the other hand, a reduction in scale implies lower revenue and a slower total asset turnover rate, which, all else being equal, could result in a decline in corporate ROE.

Orient Securities, meanwhile, argued that the short-term sentiment tug-of-war in real estate stocks is nearing a balance, but medium-term constraints should not be underestimated. The brokerage cautioned that any rebound may lack the foundation for sustained gains, given the policy measures introduced so far still exert considerable pressure on developers over the medium term. During the transition period before local governments clarify implementation details, companies are likely to scale back land acquisitions, and the market should not interpret the current partial reaction as the full extent of the steady-state impact.

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