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Rebar: Yesterday, rebar futures saw a modest intraday pullback. The 2610 contract settled at 3,123 yuan per tonne, down 20 yuan from the prior day's close, a decline of 0.64%, while open interest fell by 130,000 lots. Spot prices ticked lower with trading volumes softening. In Tangshan, Qian'an billet prices edged up 10 yuan to 3,040 yuan per tonne, while in Hangzhou, Zhongtian rebar dipped 20 yuan to 3,160 yuan per tonne. Nationwide construction steel transactions reached 82,100 tonnes. Leading mills in East China have announced their September-early pricing policies, keeping Shagang prices unchanged for rebar, wire rod, and wire coil, while Yonggang and Zhongtian raised prices by 150 yuan per tonne, indicating sustained pricing resolve among producers. Major coke producers have put forward a fourth round of price hikes for coke, with wet-extinguished coke up 100 yuan per tonne and dry-extinguished coke up 110 yuan per tonne. Several steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin have already accepted these increases, further squeezing steel mill profit margins. In the near term, rebar futures are expected to trade within a narrow range.

Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract i2701 moved within a narrow range, settling at 726.5 yuan per tonne, down 0.5 yuan from the previous close, a drop of 0.07%. Trading volume reached 255,300 lots, while open interest increased by 8,200 lots. Port spot prices remained largely stable: at Rizhao Port, 60.8% PB fines held at 698 yuan, and Carajas fines at 848 yuan. According to Mysteel data, from August 24-30, 2026, iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totalled 14.742 million tonnes, an increase of 1.328 million tonnes week-on-week. Port inventories continue to build, currently sitting at the second-highest level since Q3, with ample medium-term supply. On the demand side, hot metal output remains at low levels, steel mill profitability is weak, and raw material procurement stays cautious. With no clear directional catalyst in the near term, iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating in a tight band.

Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures declined, with the 2701 contract closing at 1,694 yuan per tonne, down 35 yuan or 2.02%, while open interest fell by 57,437 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu prime coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) rose 50 yuan to 2,200 yuan per tonne. At Ganqimaodu port, Mongolian No.5 raw coal increased 8 yuan to 1,758 yuan, while Mongolian No.3 washed coal gained 31 yuan to 1,811 yuan. Mine restarts remain constrained by safety inspections, limiting effective supply additions, and market coal availability continues to tighten. While a few holders exhibit caution at current highs, most downstream buyers are actively building inventories, with demand for raw coal remaining solid. Losses per tonne of coke have narrowed, improving coking plant profitability expectations and boosting restocking momentum. Coking coal inventories are trending lower, procurement remains difficult, and some coke producers are accelerating purchases of high-quality coking coal to ensure production continuity. In the near term, coking coal futures are expected to trade with a firm bias within a fluctuating range.

Coke: Yesterday, coke futures fell, with the 2701 contract settling at 2,202 yuan per tonne, down 39.5 yuan or 1.76%, while open interest declined by 3,461 lots. In spot trade, first-class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port rose 50 yuan to 1,980 yuan per tonne. On September 1, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin accepted increases of 100 yuan per tonne for wet-extinguished coke and 110 yuan for dry-extinguished coke, effective from midnight September 3, 2026, marking the successful implementation of the fourth round of coke price hikes. Slow mine restarts in key production areas, tight Mongolian coal availability at ports, and strong cost support have limited profit recovery for coking plants, most of which remain loss-making. Under cost pressure, capacity utilisation at coking plants has dropped to cyclical lows, factory inventories are rapidly depleting to near-zero levels, and market sentiment leans toward hoarding. Steel mill hot metal output remains relatively high, showing resilient demand, while mills are actively purchasing coke, prioritising expedited shipments and stockpiling. Slower delivery schedules have passively drawn down some mill inventories. Coke futures are expected to maintain a firm, fluctuating bias in the short term.

Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, manganese silicon futures strengthened during the session, with the main contract closing at 6,112 yuan per tonne, up 0.33% from the previous session, while open interest fell by 13,943 lots to 410,900 lots. According to Ganglian data, spot prices for 6517-grade manganese silicon across regions ranged from 5,750 to 6,010 yuan per tonne, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia seeing declines of 30 yuan per tonne from the prior day. The ferrous complex showed some divergence yesterday, with coal and coke prices easing slightly while manganese silicon prices edged higher. Manganese ore costs currently provide solid support, with ore prices improving modestly, though port bid prices and trader offers remain somewhat mismatched, prompting traders to hold firm with a reluctance to sell. On the supply-demand front, weekly manganese silicon output has reversed its decline, rising 2.28% last week and marking a third consecutive weekly increase. Demand, however, remains subdued: sample steel mill consumption of manganese silicon stood at 110,700 tonnes last week, down 1.85% week-on-week and marking a fifth straight weekly drop. Inventory levels at sample plants decreased sequentially but remain elevated year-on-year, while warehouse receipts plus valid delivery notices are down year-on-year. Overall, market sentiment is volatile and cost support is sturdy, but with supply rising and demand falling on a weekly basis, fundamental momentum for sustained upside is lacking. Manganese silicon futures are likely to maintain a modestly firm, fluctuating trajectory driven by sentiment and cost support.

Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, ferrosilicon futures strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6,258 yuan per tonne, up 1.62% from the prior session, while open interest rose by 2,662 lots to 473,400 lots. Spot prices for 72-grade ferrosilicon ranged from 5,720 to 5,770 yuan per tonne across regions, with Ningxia lifting prices by 50 yuan from the prior day. The ferrous complex showed divergence yesterday, with ferrosilicon outperforming, primarily driven by rising costs. This week, semi-coke small-particle prices rose 180-200 yuan per tonne week-on-week, with mainstream Shaanxi prices reaching 1,070 yuan per tonne. On the supply side, national average operating rates for ferrosilicon in August stood at 52.19%, up 1.03% from the prior month, with output estimated at 492,600 tonnes, up 4,300 tonnes month-on-month and 13,300 tonnes year-on-year. Demand remains weak: steel mill consumption of ferrosilicon has fallen for five consecutive weeks, with absolute levels low and down 12.97% year-on-year. Inventories at sample ferrosilicon plants rose sequentially, reaching the highest level for that period in recent years, while warehouse receipts plus valid delivery notices declined year-on-year. In summary, cost support for ferrosilicon is substantial, but current supply-demand dynamics do not justify sustained large-scale upside. Prices are expected to oscillate with a slightly firmer lean in the near term, buoyed by sentiment and cost factors.

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