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Rebar: Yesterday, rebar futures experienced a slight decline, with the rebar 2701 contract closing at 3,153 yuan per tonne, down 13 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day's settlement, a decrease of 0.41%, while open interest fell by 11,300 lots. Spot prices remained stable but with a softer tone, and trading volumes moderated. Qian'an plain billet prices in the Tangshan region dropped by 10 yuan per tonne to 3,030 yuan per tonne, while Zhongtian rebar prices in the Hangzhou market held steady at 3,160 yuan per tonne. Nationwide construction material transaction volume reached 95,600 tonnes. According to Gangyin data, national construction material inventories decreased by 1.61% week-on-week to 5.4127 million tonnes, whereas hot-rolled coil inventories rose by 3.09% to 2.5162 million tonnes. While construction material inventories saw a decline, hot-rolled coil stocks accumulated noticeably. The domestic market is gradually transitioning into the traditional peak consumption season, yet overall demand remains subdued. Additionally, the retreat of coking coal and coke futures from recent highs has impacted market sentiment to some extent. In the near term, rebar prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract i2701 edged higher, closing at 734.5 yuan per tonne, up 7.5 yuan per tonne from the previous settlement, a gain of 1.03%, with trading volume at 303,000 lots and open interest increasing by 6,200 lots. Port spot prices advanced, with 60.8% PB fines at Rizhao Port up 7 yuan to 702 yuan per tonne, and Carajas fines up 7 yuan to 854 yuan per tonne. According to Mysteel data, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.583 million tonnes this period, a decrease of 2.133 million tonnes week-on-week. Shipments from Australia and Brazil combined reached 26.989 million tonnes, down 1.695 million tonnes. Australian shipments fell by 1.017 million tonnes to 19.263 million tonnes, with shipments to China dropping 1.252 million tonnes to 15.306 million tonnes. Brazilian shipments decreased by 678,000 tonnes to 7.725 million tonnes. Arrivals at 47 ports surged by 7.478 million tonnes to 26.996 million tonnes, while arrivals at 45 ports increased by 8.329 million tonnes to 26.239 million tonnes. Global shipments eased slightly on a weekly basis, with both Australian and Brazilian exports declining, though absolute volumes remain at normal-to-elevated levels. Arrivals at 47 ports rose substantially, repairing the earlier low arrival base and temporarily closing the supply-side contraction window. On the demand side, daily hot metal output has rebounded modestly from lows, but declining steel mill profitability casts doubt on the sustainability of production restarts. The near-term recovery in arrivals caps upside potential for iron ore prices, and upward momentum remains insufficient. The iron ore futures market is expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in the short term.

Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures declined, with the coking coal 2701 contract closing at 1,627.5 yuan per tonne, down 38.5 yuan per tonne, a decrease of 2.31%, while open interest fell by 36,697 lots. In the spot market, main coking coal at Jiexiu (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) held steady at 2,200 yuan per tonne; at Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian No. 5 raw coal fell by 29 yuan to 1,671 yuan per tonne, while Mongolian No. 3 washed coal rose by 6 yuan to 1,850 yuan per tonne. Safety inspections in Shanxi Province remain intensive, and the pace of mine resumption has fallen severely short of expectations, with widespread instances of production resumption without reaching full capacity. As of early September, nearly 50 million tonnes of coal mine capacity in Shanxi remained suspended. Mongolian coking coal, a key supplementary source, has not seen a significant recovery in border crossing volumes, with port inventories continuing to deplete and limited quality resources available for sale. Downstream industries face profit pressure, though coke producers' profit expectations have shown some improvement, increasing their acceptance of higher-priced coking coal. With improved profit margins, downstream buyers are engaging in rigid restocking of low-to-mid inventory levels, significantly boosting purchasing enthusiasm, though some holders display reluctance at high prices. Coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile range in the near term.

Metallurgical Coke: Yesterday, metallurgical coke futures declined, with the coke 2701 contract closing at 2,128 yuan per tonne, down 43 yuan per tonne, a decrease of 1.98%, while open interest increased by 288 lots. In the spot market, quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port rose by 130 yuan to 2,110 yuan per tonne. Most coke producers remain loss-making, with an increasing number opting for voluntary production cuts. Operating rates stay at low levels, and average daily output has declined month-on-month. Downstream steel mills have strong restocking demand, and coke producers' on-site inventories are accelerating drawdowns, with some approaching zero inventory and maintaining a sell-as-produced approach. Steel mill production resumptions are driving a recovery in rigid demand, with daily hot metal output remaining at relatively high levels. Steel mills' own coke inventories have fallen to low levels, strengthening their purchasing intentions. However, weak finished steel prices continue to erode mill profitability, intensifying loss pressure. The risk of negative feedback from the demand side is accumulating, and coke futures are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Manganese Silicon: On Monday, manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract settling at 5,880 yuan per tonne, down 4.7% week-on-week, while open interest for the main contract decreased by 64,613 lots to 336,400 lots. The ferrous metals complex showed overall weakness yesterday, with coal and coke prices falling and alloy prices leading declines, pulling manganese silicon futures lower. Market sentiment has shifted considerably recently; last Friday, manganese silicon prices rose on cost expectations, but weakened coal price support has flipped the balance between long and short positions. On the supply-demand front, operating rates at manganese silicon producers have increased for four consecutive weeks, with weekly output rising 1.01% week-on-week to 174,300 tonnes. Further supply increases are anticipated from maintenance completions and new capacity coming online. Higher producer operating rates should improve demand for manganese ore, lending support to port ore prices, though elevated inventory levels at ports remain a cap on ore price upside. On the demand side, sampled steel mills' weekly manganese silicon demand declined 0.16% to 110,500 tonnes, marking six consecutive weeks of declines and sitting at relatively low absolute levels. With manganese silicon futures prices pulling back yesterday, downstream steel buyers are intensifying price pressure in tender pricing; market attention will focus on tender settlement results. Inventory data shows 63 sampled manganese silicon producers' inventories edged down slightly week-on-week to 451,500 tonnes as of September 4, down 500 tonnes, but up 291,000 tonnes year-on-year, continuing to hit record highs in recent years. Overall, while fundamentals have not changed significantly recently, market sentiment has shifted considerably. Manganese silicon futures are expected to see continued wide fluctuations in the near term, with attention on the overall ferrous complex direction.

Silicon Iron: On Monday, silicon iron futures weakened, with the main contract settling at 6,300 yuan per tonne, down 4.02% week-on-week, while open interest for the main contract decreased by 67,404 lots to 415,500 lots. The ferrous complex showed broad weakness yesterday, with coal and coke prices declining and alloy prices among the biggest losers. The primary driver for silicon iron has recently been the cost side, but weekend cooling in market sentiment shifted the narrative, leading to long liquidation and lower futures prices. On electricity costs, Qinghai's benchmark price is 0.40-0.45 yuan/kWh, up about 0.1 yuan/kWh week-on-week, while Ningxia's price is 0.39-0.40 yuan/kWh, down about 0.01 yuan/kWh. On the supply side, weekly silicon iron output reached 116,600 tonnes last week, up 1.39% week-on-week, marking four consecutive weeks of increases, with growth primarily driven by Ningxia. On the demand side, with silicon iron futures prices moving lower yesterday, downstream steel buyers show strong price-pressuring intentions in tenders; settlement pricing is a key focus. Sampled steel mills' weekly silicon iron demand edged up 0.02% to 17,900 tonnes last week, remaining at low levels compared with the same period over the past five years. Inventory data shows 60 sampled enterprises' inventories fell by 3,700 tonnes to 78,320 tonnes as of the week of September 4, while combined silicon iron warrants and effective deliverable forecasts have been gradually increasing. Given the rapid shifts in market sentiment without major fundamental changes, silicon iron futures are expected to continue volatile trading in the near term, with attention on the ferrous complex direction.

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