Iraq is seeking a substantial increase in its crude production quota as OPEC and its allies evaluate member capacity to determine next year's output levels, according to sources familiar with the matter. The second-largest producer within the organization wants future output targets calculated against a baseline of 6 million barrels per day, a significant jump from the baseline it most recently utilized.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. Iraq, which served as the birthplace of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries more than six decades ago, signaled in June that it might consider leaving OPEC if it failed to secure a sufficiently high production baseline. If carried through, such a move would deliver a serious blow to the alliance, following the earlier exit of the United Arab Emirates, another major Middle Eastern member.

The assessment also carries potential significance for OPEC's internal cohesion. Fellow founding member Venezuela is currently weighing whether to withdraw from the organization. In parallel, Venezuela is advancing a landmark agreement with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump that would grant Washington considerable control over a portion of its oil reserves.

Iraq's output ceiling under the OPEC+ framework for September and October stands at 4.431 million barrels per day. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates Iraq's sustainable capacity at roughly 4.9 million barrels per day. However, actual production has fallen far below that level due to disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the conflict involving Iran. Iraq's average crude output in August was 2.98 million barrels per day.