The aggressive shift in macroeconomic policy expectations is restructuring the pricing logic of digital assets, with Bitcoin falling below the crucial psychological threshold of $79,000. This pullback is directly attributed to the market repricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, as the probability of a rate hike has now climbed to 60%. The expected contraction of liquidity in traditional financial markets is transmitting into the digital asset space, creating significant downward pressure.
Tuesday's trading data shows Bitcoin changing hands at just under $78,800, marking a daily decline of more than 1%. The leading cryptocurrency has now spent two consecutive weeks unable to sustain levels above $80,000, with the momentum from its August rebound completely exhausted. In contrast, Zcash, despite a nearly 5% single-day drop to around $1,125, has posted a remarkable seven-day gain of 33%, topping the charts among major cryptocurrencies.
Other mainstream digital assets remain under widespread pressure. Hyperliquid's HYPE token fell over 3% to roughly $84, while Solana slipped more than 2% to just above $103, with both erasing their weekly gains. Ether declined 1% to just under $2,482, XRP dropped to $1.39, and Tron held steady at approximately 33 cents. Meanwhile, Dogecoin and Binance Coin proved relatively resilient, with seven-day gains of around 9% and over 7% respectively, standing as the only bright spots besides Zcash.
Multi-dimensional pressures from traditional financial markets are intensifying the volatility. US Treasury bond yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield holding near 4.8% following August employment data that showed 162,000 new jobs—far exceeding the anticipated 53,000. Market participants now price a 60% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, a scenario that seemed inconceivable back in the spring. The US Dollar Index has pulled back to just below 99, while gold prices have climbed above $4,430.
On the geopolitical front, an agreement between Iran and Oman regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has helped keep Brent crude above $97, reaching a six-week high following weekend attacks by the US and Iran on related facilities. Asian equities show a mixed picture: South Korea's KOSPI index surged nearly 5% to its highest level since late July, Japan's Nikkei gained more than 2% driven by AI-related memory chip demand, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell nearly 1%.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on upcoming key inflation data. Thursday's Producer Price Index and Friday's Consumer Price Index represent the final inflation readings before the Fed's policy meeting. If these figures show inflation remaining stubbornly high, the probability of a rate hike could rise to two-thirds, potentially putting Bitcoin's support level of $77,000 under severe test. This marks another critical juncture following the market's misjudgment in the spring, and investors should carefully assess downside risks before the data is released.