美银维持领展买入评级目标价46港元看好长期回报潜力

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美银证券最新研究报告指出，领展房产基金（00823）在截至6月底的首财季运营数据公布后，其业务逐步企稳的核心逻辑依然得到支撑，但短期内实现显著改善的可能性相对有限。该行认为，领展目前估值具备吸引力，且存在潜在的上行催化剂，因此决定维持其“买入”评级，目标价设定为46港元。

报告强调，基于2027财年预测股息率高达6.4%的诱人水平，叠加香港本地基本面呈现企稳迹象、非核心资产出售计划持续推进以及单位回购举措等多重因素支持，领展的投资价值依然突出。从积极层面观察，香港零售物业的即时租金水平环比已呈现企稳趋势，同时内地零售业务的续租租金同比实现了2.7%的增长。

管理层预计，在截至9月底的2027财年上半年内，香港零售租金的调整幅度仍将维持中个位数的负增长态势。不过，由于明年3月底止的下半财年将面临较高的比较基数，集团依然维持全年高个位数租金跌幅的目标指引。另一方面，香港零售租户的销售表现首财季同比下滑1.1%，相较于3月底止末财季隐含的0.5%增长有所转弱。

管理层重申2027财年每基金单位分派大致维持同比持平的目标，但因利率环境及公用事业成本上升等潜在风险逐渐显现，整体语调趋于审慎。美银证券预计，在利率未出现大幅上升的前提假设下，领展上半财年及整个2027财年的每基金单位分派将同比下跌2%。

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