As September begins, brokerages are launching their 2026 autumn strategy conferences. Since late August, 14 securities firms have either hosted or announced plans for such research meetings, with over ten already sharing their initial views.

From GF Securities' "Crossing the Long Wave" to Huatai Securities' "Divergence, Re-rating, Rebalancing," and from Guotai Junan International's "Navigating Change, Planning for Autumn" to Western Securities' "New Momentum," these institutions are conducting deep analyses of macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and asset allocation strategies.

A notable development is the strong consensus emerging among sell-side researchers on the dual-track allocation strategy of "tech growth + dividend defense" for the second half of the year.

Macro Outlook: Fiscal Support Poised to Drive a 'Shallow U-Shaped' Recovery

The current macroeconomic environment sits at a complex intersection of multiple cycles, with chief economists from various brokerages offering distinct analytical frameworks.

Guo Lei, Chief Economist at GF Securities, suggested at the company's "Crossing the Long Wave" autumn capital forum that the macro landscape can be characterized as a contest of "four relative speeds": the pace of supply-demand iteration amid technological revolution, the adjustment speed of growth performance versus capital costs in a global liquidity environment, the divergence between the domestic Kondratieff upswing and Kuznets cycle adjustments, and the counterbalancing speed between short-term economic pressures and fiscal stabilization policies.

He concluded that while long-term technological prospects are clear, short-term supply-demand uncertainties are rising. Overseas major central banks have yet to end their tightening cycles, domestic property shows preliminary signs of improvement but mid-cycle adjustments haven't bottomed out, and accelerated fiscal spending in the second half could drive a "shallow U-shaped" economic recovery.

At Huachuang Securities' "Charting the Mid-course" autumn conference, the focus was on "intersecting turning points." The firm highlighted four key shifts to monitor: first, earnings – the deposit growth differential between enterprises and households has risen to relatively high levels, and a subsequent decline could signal weakening earnings three quarters out; second, valuations – the ratio of new household deposits to new M2 has fallen to low levels, and an upturn could pressure valuations; third, policy – combined growth in retail sales, manufacturing investment, and exports hasn't turned negative yet, but if quarterly GDP falls below target, accelerated implementation of existing policies and moderate additions to incremental measures can be expected; fourth, equities versus bonds – equity downside volatility has risen notably while bond downside volatility remains low, suggesting the stock-bond balance may shift from stock outperformance toward a neutral position for both.

Bian Quanshui, Chief Macro Analyst at Western Securities, noted at the "New Momentum" autumn conference that the economic structure is undergoing profound transformation. Real estate is entering an "L-shaped" bottoming phase, while AI and new quality productive forces are becoming key engines for future economic development. Looking ahead, growth drivers are expected to shift from external demand dependence toward domestic demand leadership. Policies to expand domestic demand and counter involution are likely to work in tandem, and overseas investment by Chinese enterprises has become an inevitable trend, all promoting economic rebalancing.

Industry Focus: AI Transitioning from 'Compute Expansion' to 'Demand Creation'

This round of autumn conferences shows intense focus on five major themes: AI, innovative drugs, consumption, autos, and overseas expansion, extending into segments such as optical connectivity, enterprise-level AI, humanoid robots, smart vehicles, property dividends, energy investment, and great power competition. Among these, AI stands out as the structural theme receiving the most attention across institutions.

Zhang Wei, Vice President of GF Securities, emphasized at the autumn capital forum that AI is moving from technological innovation toward practical application. China has accumulated a solid industrial base and rich scenario advantages, and should view developmental setbacks from a long-term perspective while firmly grasping the medium-to-long-term direction of technological change. He noted that technological revolution isn't simply about replacing old industries with new ones – during the transition, emerging industries thrive while traditional industries undergoing intelligent upgrades also present fresh opportunities.

Liu Chenming, Chief Strategy Analyst at GF Securities, stated that the institutional landscape in A-shares has evolved from active public funds dominating to a balanced multi-party game, with AI remaining the most promising structural growth theme. He specifically mentioned that RSI (Recursive Super Intelligence) provides a new narrative for AI investment, shifting from compute expansion to demand creation. As agent capabilities advance toward higher-level autonomous iteration, training and application demand could open new growth space.

Wang Zonghao, Head of China Equity Strategy Research at UBS Securities, expressed continued optimism about China's AI supply chain at the 23rd UBS Securities China A-share seminar, particularly favoring domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, storage, and connectors. He expects China's AI data center construction to accelerate further as domestic GPUs ramp up in the second half.

Liang Hong, Chair of the Institutional Business Committee at Huatai Securities, further noted at the autumn investment summit that the market currently experiences macroeconomic volatility and technological leaps in resonance. Divergence defines the market backdrop and also serves as a source of opportunity. Over the next three to six months, the market should gradually move beyond single-theme speculation into a rebalancing phase where investment logic returns to fundamentals, with performance verification separating winners from losers.

Market Outlook: A 'Golden Autumn Rally' of Recovery and Rebound

On market timing, multiple institutions hold relatively positive views toward the second half. Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Analyst at Guotai Junan International, stated at the "Navigating Change, Planning for Autumn" conference that with supportive economic policy stances and positive industrial progress in autumn, the market will experience a recovery and rebound – a "golden autumn rally." Investment opportunities will no longer be concentrated in a single theme; instead, diffusion and balance will be key characteristics. He favors domestically innovative technology, materials, manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, along with major financials and high-dividend sectors.

Lian Peikun, Asia Pacific Director of UBS Global Research, noted at the UBS Securities China A-share seminar press event that the Chinese market should be regarded not merely as an option within global asset allocation, but as an important component. The recent A-share correction reflects risk release following earlier gains rather than a fundamental reversal of the medium-to-long-term trend. With margin balances declining, market deleveraging nearing completion, and positive factors accelerating their accumulation, the recovery trend in the second half is expected to continue.

Cao Liulong, Chief Strategy Analyst at Western Securities, stated that high US Treasury yields could accelerate the bursting of the AI debt bubble, and the Federal Reserve has almost no precedent for preventive QE – typically intervening only after liquidity shocks hit US equities. Until the Fed launches QE rescue measures, he recommends seeking certainty assets amid the treasury storm: gold/nonferrous metals, property/consumption, and Hong Kong-listed internet companies.

On allocation strategy, the "tech growth + dividend defense" dual-track approach has become institutional consensus. Huatai Securities recommends a balanced offense-defense posture, with quality AI targets as the offensive line and high-dividend, stable cash flow assets as defensive ballast, while continuing to favor supply-constrained strategic sectors such as power, resources, and agricultural products. Huachuang Securities suggests maintaining an "AI + resources" theme through year-end, with rebalancing in 2027, where growth intensity will determine the outcome between domestic consumption and high-dividend plays.

Industry insiders note that the concentrated voices from multiple brokerages at autumn strategy conferences indicate that sell-side research remains relatively optimistic about the medium-to-long-term prospects of the A-share market. Significantly, as the AI industry evolves from compute expansion to demand creation and as stable-value assets see their odds converge, the market is moving from single-theme speculation toward diversified, balanced allocation.