Developments in Middle East Conflict, Macro Data to Drive Bond Markets Near Term
Dow Jones
Sep 04
0507 GMT - Developments in the Iran conflict alongside key macro data, most prominently U.S. CPI data on Sept. 11, will remain the key near-term catalysts for bond markets, SEB's Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. "We believe the policy-rate paths currently discounted in U.S and euro-area markets have become stretched on the upside; however, a durable decline in yields is likely to require clearer prospects of a sustainable resolution to the conflict," the chief rates strategist says. This would need to translate into lower energy prices and easing inflation pressures, allowing policy-rate expectations to turn less hawkish and bond yields to decline, he says. As for data, the most immediate key one is U.S. payrolls data for August on Friday.
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