Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to hold oil production steady in October after six straight monthly increases, as the focus shifts to setting output quotas for next year.
Sunday's decision comes as the war between the U.S. and Iran continues to severely disrupt global oil flows, limiting the ability of the broader group, OPEC+, to bring additional barrels to consumers and influence market balances.
Oil prices extended their gains, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, ending above $96 a barrel on Friday. The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes earlier in the week, for the first time in about a month.
Seven members of OPEC+ last month agreed to raise output by about 188,000 barrels a day for September, completing the phased unwinding of 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary supply cuts originally agreed in 2023. The participating countries include Saudi Arabia-the group's de facto leader-along with Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
Separate cuts of around 2 million barrels a day introduced by the broader OPEC+ group in 2022 remain in place through the end of the year.
The cartel is also reviewing OPEC+ members' production capacity after saying last year it would create a system to set output baselines for 2027 that would dictate future quotas. The Middle East conflict, however, could test the group's cohesion if producers seek to increase output beyond their targets once regional oil flows normalize, according to analysts.
OPEC recently cut its forecast for oil-demand growth again for this year as stalled efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and risks to Red Sea shipping prolong supply disruptions, though its estimates remain far more optimistic than those of many other forecasters. The cartel expects demand to rise by 580,000 barrels a day this year, down from the 780,000 barrels a day it expected previously. It sees growth accelerating to 2.16 million barrels a day next year.
The war between the U.S. and Iran has entered its seventh month, with no signs of an imminent resolution in sight as the two sides remain far apart on key issues, including management of the strait and Iran's nuclear program.
Fighting flared up again as the two countries continue to battle for control of Hormuz. The U.S. military said it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two Navy warships. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is quietly extending troop deployments in the Middle East, signaling the conflict could drag into next year.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that more than 17 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. However, estimates can vary, with industry firms saying ship-tracking data can offer only a partial picture of flows as some tankers operate without tracking signals.
Before the conflict began Feb. 28, about 20 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products moved through the waterway.
The seven OPEC+ producers are scheduled to meet again on Oct. 4 to decide production levels for November.