Rise in German Bund Yields Almost Entirely Due to ECB Rate-Hike Prospects
Dow Jones
Sep 07
0930 GMT - The recent rise in German Bund yields reflects expectations of higher eurozone interest rates rather than demand for compensation for buying longer-dated debt, Generali Investments' Florian Spaete says in a note. The 10-year Bund yield's increase of close to 50 basis points in the third quarter to a 15-year high was "driven almost entirely by a repricing of European Central Bank rate expectations," the strategist says. Markets fully price a 25-basis-point hike in September and nearly two more by summer 2027, yet the 10-year Bund term premium has barely moved since late June, he says. The term premium, around 0.5%, is still low by historical standards, suggesting that the recent yield rise is mostly a policy-rate story, he says.
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