This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.

Productivity Boom

Quick Takes Yardeni Research Sept. 2:Dell Technologies' stock price is soaring. The company delivered a major beat for its fiscal 2027 second quarter, driven by massive demand for AI infrastructure and strong legacy hardware performance. Revenue and earnings year over year rose 58% and 203%, respectively. AI server revenue rose 100%, while traditional servers and networking revenue rose 122%. The results confirm that the AI infrastructure buildout remains in full swing. Strong demand for AI compute capacity points to accelerating AI adoption across the economy, which we think will drive a productivity boom.

We are already seeing signs of this boom in the economic data. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model currently estimates that real GDP is increasing by 4.8% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q3, led by a whopping 21.5% increase in AI-supercharged fixed business-equipment investment...

Productivity growth has rebounded since it last bottomed in Q2 2017 at 0.85%, based on the annualized average of its seven-year growth rates. It rose to 2.4% during Q2 2026, slightly exceeding its historical average of 2.3%. We predict this growth rate will rise to 3.0%-4.0% by the end of the decade.

Ed Yardeni

Don't Blame El Niño

Macro Strategy TS Lombard Sept. 3: With the Iran war having significantly pushed up energy prices, higher food prices driven by El Niño could be another concern for policymakers and consumers. The Oceanic Niño Index suggests a major El Niño could be looming, with potentially adverse effects on global crop yields. The good news is that the relationship between a major El Niño event and subsequent runaway food-price inflation is tenuous at best: 1972-73 is the only period in which prices surged because of such an event.

Although it is true that many agricultural commodities can see strong price changes around El Niño events, not every El Niño cycle results in strong and joint increases for wheat, rice, palm oil, and corn (which are the key drivers of food prices). [Although] the 1972-73 surge in food prices seemed to be related to an El Niño event, low inventories and a global energy shock were also pushing up prices.

Inventories for rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, and palm oil are much stronger today, limiting the risk of runaway food-price inflation. While current USDA forecasts for production and consumption imply a deficit for wheat, rice, and corn in 2026, the numbers are still relatively modest; moreover, USDA production forecasts were revised upward in August.

Daniel Von Ahlen, Robert Taylor

Global Economy Roars

Economics I Global Focus NDR Ned Davis Research Sept. 3: The global economy remained on fire in August, according to the latest global PMIs [purchasing managers indexes]. The global composite PMI, a timely monthly proxy for global GDP, rose 0.9 points to 53.5 last month. That marked both the largest monthly increase and the highest level since May 2024. The data suggest that the global economy has not only shrugged off its war-related losses but is once again thriving. The PMI now sits well above levels typically associated with sustained global slowdowns or recessions and the corresponding equity bear markets. Furthermore, the acceleration in momentum observed over the past few months has historically been an even more bullish signal for global equities.

Alejandra Grindal

Bessent's Spare Change

Market Commentary Wells Fargo Investment Institute Sept. 2: A recent U.S. Treasury announcement has some investors worried that Washington is reaching into the couch cushions for spare cash-and that this could be a sign of dollar "debasement" or runaway money printing. We think those fears are overdone. This is not the government firing up the printing press. It is closer to using cash already in a checking account to pay down a small piece of a credit card balance. Unusual? Yes. A currency crisis? No.

The Treasury keeps an account called the Treasury General Account, or TGA. Think of it as the federal government's checking account, funded by taxes and bond sales. That account has grown to nearly $950 billion, well above its more typical $550 billion to $650 billion buffer. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently doubled the size of a program that buys back older government bonds, and has floated the idea of using some of that cash pile to help pay for those buybacks instead of issuing more short-term Treasury bills.

That distinction matters. The concern from the "debasement" camp is that this looks like the Federal Reserve printing new money to buy government debt. But the Fed isn't involved. No new money is created, and the move by itself doesn't increase the total amount of government debt...

This couch-cushion cash may help the Treasury manage near-term funding needs, but it doesn't change the larger bond-market math. Heavy government borrowing, large deficits, and still-elevated long-term rate risk remain meaningful headwinds for long-term bonds. Investors may still hold some long bonds for income and diversification, but we believe exposure should be limited. We remain unfavorable on long-term bonds.

Brian Rehling

Regime Change Favors Value

Market Commentary Wells Fargo Investment Institute Sept. 2: Should the recent rotation into value stocks be viewed as a regime shift-driven change in market preference, or a simple reversal trade? We think there is a compelling case to be made for the former. In a regime of higher interest rates and stubbornly above-target inflation, the market is increasingly focused on capex [capital expenditure] intensity, free cash flow conversion, and the cost of capital. Therefore, it makes sense that companies with visible cash generation have broadly regained relative appeal.

Tom Shipp, Tucker Beale

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