Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Sep 05

The latest Market Talks covering the Auto and Transport sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1303 GMT - Volkswagen's restructuring agreement is a major positive surprise and proves the company can implement its transformation program despite complex governance and labor constraints, Bank of America Securities analysts Horst Schneider and Stephen Benhamou write. Ahead of the meeting, media reports had suggested an escalating confrontation with labor and state representatives, potentially culminating in legal action or an extraordinary general meeting, the bank says. "Against this backdrop, we believe few expected a unanimous agreement." The plan envisages around 50,000 additional job reductions globally by 2030, taking the total number to 100,000, but the detailed measures still need to be agreed. It is therefore not yet clear when restructuring provisions will be booked, but the bank estimates gross charges of up to 10 billion euros, probably spread over several years. Shares rise 7.6%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

1101 GMT - BRP is navigating tumultuous tariff waters better than feared, TD Cowen analyst Brian Morrison says, noting that management reduced its F2027 net tariff exposure to around C$200 million from its prior guidance of C$300 million to C$350 million. Part of this is because BRP is launching a new side-by-side vehicle engineered to fit into lower-tax trade categories, bypassing higher import duties. "This should be complemented by reduced tariff rates on ATVs in June, partially offset by the commencement of S338 tariffs upon Spyder 3WVs," Morrison says. What's more, the company expects FY2028 tariff exposure to be C$225 million, "which we view as well below what we estimate is in consensus ($350mm-$375mm)." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0951 GMT - Volkswagen's supervisory board approval of a new restructuring plan is a major surprise and represents a fundamental breakthrough for a company many investors had seen as "not fixable," Deutsche Bank analysts write. However, the agreement doesn't solve Volkswagen's challenges overnight, and execution remains key, the analysts say. Deutsche Bank thinks there has been very limited dilution of the board's core transformation targets, aside from a lack of definitive plans to simplify the group structure and close four German manufacturing plants. "Nonetheless, we continue to see it as unlikely that Volkswagen will still produce vehicles at these sites beyond the early 2030s and believe addressing Germany's structural cost disadvantage remains fundamental to any sustainable turnaround." Shares in the German automaker rise 5.5%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0948 GMT - The Gulf's push to build new trade, energy and logistics infrastructure is likely to continue regardless of the near-term outcome of the Iran war, the Arab Gulf States Institute says. Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is one objective, but the investment drive extends to pipelines, railways, roads, ports and new economic corridors across the region, says ASGI non-resident fellow Robert Mogielnicki. Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from a westward shift in economic activity, while the U.A.E. is developing eastern export and logistics hubs and Oman is gaining from routes that avoid regional chokepoints.

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