Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

0754 GMT - Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has strengthened the case for Adnoc Gas to have export capacity on the east coast but who pays for it will be key, Barclays analyst Ramachandra Kamath writes. The U.A.E government is considering options to de-risk its reliance on the waterway, he adds. The key question for Adnoc Gas investors is ownership versus usage, according to Kamath. The plant would require substantial investment and has limited use under normal circumstances, he says. Adnoc Group could build the asset and then transfer it over to Adnoc Gas, like the group has done before, he says. This would avoid burdening Adnoc Gas's balance sheet or dilute the midteen project returns that management targets, he says. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0600 GMT - TotalEnergies is exploring oil and gas investments in the U.S., Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes. The French energy major remains focused on cash-accretive growth and its upcoming capital markets day should provide a clearer picture of its strategy through 2035, she adds. Sustaining production beyond 2030 could require higher investment spending, but inflation isn't currently seen as an issue across its portfolio, she writes after a fireside chat with CEO Patrick Pouyanne at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0552 GMT - TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne doesn't see a physical gas supply risk in Europe but says the continent will have to compete with Asia for LNG cargos, which could further support prices. The company's integrated gas business continues to benefit from rising gas prices and low European inventories, Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth writes after hosting Pouyanne at the Barclays Energy-Power Conference. Pouyanne's outlook for oil is more uncertain, she writes. It is unclear whether the drop in Chinese demand since the start of the conflict reflectsstructural demand changes or temporary demand destruction, she writes.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0459 GMT - The setup for future nuclear growth is the best it has been in a very long time, says UxC President Jonathan Hinze. He cites energy security concerns, policies to combat climate change and the rapid expansion of power needs, particularly for data centers. "At the same time, the nuclear fuel supply chain is not yet fully engaged in responding to this rising demand outlook despite significant increases in prices," he says. Hinze says there is potential for a shortfall by the 2030s, "with increasing needs for large amounts of new uranium mine development over the coming decade and beyond." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0404 GMT - Upstream development spending in Malaysia's oil and gas sector could accelerate as higher oil prices improve project economics, says CIMB Securities analyst Muhammad Afif Bin Zulkaplly in a note. Maintenance activity could also pick up as operators gain greater cash-flow visibility to resume deferred work, he says. Industry discussions at a recent Malaysia oil & gas services exhibition and conference highlighted opportunities to improve project efficiency through collaboration, performance-based contracts and overseas expansion, he notes. Companies with strong execution records and financial positions are expected to be better placed to benefit, he says. CIMB maintains an overweight rating on the oil and gas sector, and rates Dayang Enterprise, Dialog, MISC and Velesto Energy at buy. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0322 GMT - Malaysia's exposure to oil-price shocks is expected to remain moderate and manageable, RHB Chief Economist Barnabas Gan says in a note. Higher oil prices support fiscal revenue through stronger petroleum receipts and potentially larger dividends from Petronas, while lower prices provide relief by reducing fuel-subsidy costs, he says. Malaysian crude grades have continued to command significant premiums over global Brent benchmark, helping cushion revenue losses from lower outright oil prices, he says. Although these premiums are likely to normalize as geopolitical tensions ease, they have provided a buffer for export earnings and fiscal revenue. RHB expects Brent crude to fall to $85 a barrel by end-2026 and $75 a barrel by end-2027, assuming a renewed easing of geopolitical tensions. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0114 GMT - Korea Gas is set to benefit from growing earnings contributions from its overseas energy projects, Yuanta Securities Korea' Son Hyun-jeong and Kim Ko-eun. The analysts expect the South Korean state-owned liquefied natural gas supplier's consolidated operating profit to rise 14% to 2.404 trillion won in 2026, with overseas operations accounting for 25% of total profit, up from 15% in 2025. LNG fields in which the company has invested,especially in Canada and Mozambique, have significantly increased production recently, driving earnings growth, they note. Yuanta initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating and 47,000 won target price. Shares are 0.4% higher at 36,300 won. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

2254 GMT - AGL Energy's bear at Macquarie remains concerned about the power generator and retailer's FY28 outlook. Macquarie reckons consensus expectations for FY27 Ebitda of A$2.04 billion are materially too high. It points out the industry is 57% through the Default Market Offer period for pricing. Macquarie adds the El Nino weather event hasn't materially changed forward electricity markets, while batteries have reduced day-to-day volatility. "Power pricing is likely to stay below A$100/MWh (New South Wales) in FY28 and FY29," Macquarie says. The performance of AGL's power plants in July and August reflects the soft price environment with reduced coal generation, although this is likely reflected in FY27 Ebitda guidance, Macquarie says. It keeps an "underperform" call and A$7.94/share price target on AGL, which ended Wednesday at A$8.78. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2134 GMT - Mexico's 2027 federal government budget proposal includes transfers of around $4.5 billion to Pemex for debt payments, which puts off plans for the state oil company to be financially self-sufficient by next year. "The lower budget support is an improvement over 2026, but doesn't break the financial link to the sovereign or show that Pemex can finance its operations, investment and financial obligations by itself," analysts at Banamex say in a note. The budget plan sees production of liquid hydrocarbons unchanged from 2026 at 1.8 million barrels a day, while crude oil exports are expected to fall to 426,600 b/d from 522,400 b/d this year. Mexico's average crude price is seen at $61.80 a barrel, down from an estimated $78.40 a barrel for 2026.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1932 GMT - New York-traded diesel futures settle at their highest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and their second highest ever as the flare-up in the U.S.-Iran conflict pushes up crude prices and threatens further supply loss. "Watch diesel harder than crude. That's where the real squeeze lives," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. Ukrainian attacks on refineries that have led Russia to halt diesel exports, and Persian Gulf disruptions, are keeping prices high, he says. "Russia can't export diesel. The U.S. and India are running flat-out to fill the gap." Nymex diesel settles up 5.1% at $4.8010 a gallon, its highest close since April 28, 2022. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1925 GMT - Oil futures settle at their highest level since May 22 as strikes between the U.S. and Iran escalate and Houthis step up attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The escalation is cause for concern as inventories are low and drawing down and it doesn't look like the U.S. is making any progress with the conflict, says John Deal, managing director of capital markets at Post Oak Group. "I frankly think we're in really risky territory right now," he says, with significant risk of damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. "I wouldn't be surprised, if this conflict doesn't wrap up soon, I think we could be looking at prices over $100 maybe as high as $120." Brent settles up 3.4% at $101.21 a barrel, and WTI rises 3.2% to $96.05. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1633 GMT - Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran is dimming prospects for an agreement to settle the conflict, creating scope for sustained upside in crude, says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. But crude oil continues to find a way out of the Persian Gulf and the U.S. still prefers to pressure Tehran and its enablers through economic measures, he adds. "President Trump may also be incentivized to seek an off-ramp as the conflict increasingly clashes with his domestic agenda, with the midterms getting closer." WTI is up 3.5% at $96.25 a barrel and Brent gains 3.2% to $101.08.

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