Persistent inflation has pushed the projected Social Security raise for 2027 to 3.5%, the highest level in several years.

The estimate from Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, comes as inflation held steady in August, rising 3.4% year over year on higher gas prices, according to the consumer price index data released Friday. The annual cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security is based on a CPI subset that increased 3.5% over the past 12 months.

The Social Security Administration typically announces the COLA for the coming year in October, when the third-quarter inflation data are complete. This year, that will fall on Oct. 14. The raise is calculated by comparing the average inflation rates for the third quarter of the current year and the previous year.

A boost of 3.5% would add $71 to the average monthly retirement benefit of $2,032. It would be the highest since the 8.7% COLA for 2023, which followed the inflation spike of the prior year.

Social Security is on shaky financial footing, and some proposals to close its funding shortfall involve modifying the COLA. One would impose a flat-rate COLA that would cut annual benefits by $285 in 2026 for the average beneficiary, according to an analysis from the AARP Public Policy Institute.

"Pay close attention to the debate over Social Security solvency now," Johnson said in a statement. "It's important for midterm voters to understand the changes to Social Security that members of Congress face to shore up the program."

If Congress fails to act, the retirement trust fund is projected to run dry in 2032, triggering an automatic benefit cut of 22%. That means that U.S. senators elected in this November's midterm election will likely be part of any fix that Congress passes before then.