Amgen's (AMGN) experimental heart drug olpasiran may still show a meaningful reduction in major cardiovascular events, even after Novartis' (NVS) competing drug failed in a large study, UBS Securities said Monday in a report.

Novartis' pelacarsen trial came up short overall, though UBS' analysis suggests the drug might have shown a modest benefit of 7% to 11% reduction in heart-attack-and-stroke risk among patients with very high levels of lipoprotein(a), a cholesterol-like particle linked to heart disease, the report said.

Amgen's study focuses on an even higher-risk group, and olpasiran lowers lipoprotein(a) to a greater degree than pelacarsen, UBS said. Amgen's trial also uses a different primary endpoint that excludes stroke, and taken together, these factors may help turn a small numerical benefit into a statistically significant result, potentially around a 15% reduction in major cardiovascular events, the report said.

UBS maintained its buy rating on Amgen stock and its $440 price target.

Amgen shares fell 9.9% in Tuesday trading, and Novartis slumped 14%.

Price: 393.96, Change: -43.28, Percent Change: -9.90