Polls Suggest Unease with the GOP Might Have Limited Benefit for Democrats

Dow Jones
Sep 10

Polling has carried bad news for the Republican Party lately: Voters are deeply unhappy with President Trump, and the GOP has forfeited its lead in many polls as the party best able to manage the economy.

But Republicans can take heart from one other finding: Unhappiness with the GOP isn't necessarily turning into votes for Democratic candidates. Asked which party they plan to support for Congress, voters pick the Democratic Party by 6 percentage points, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows. That isn't much of a lead, given structural advantages Republicans have due to the gerrymandering of House districts. And it is actually a slimmer lead than in Trump's last midterm, in 2018, a time when people were happy with the economy and with his economic management.

At this point in 2018, the Democratic advantage was 8 points in Wall Street Journal polling. The narrower lead this year might suggest that voters remain uneasy with Democrats even while they register unhappiness with the president-a feeling that the GOP will try to amplify in Dallas.

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