Bar for Further ECB Hikes Remains High

Dow Jones
Yesterday

1259 GMT - While the ECB's quarter-point rate hike was expected, conditions make any further tightening of monetary policy unlikely, David Rees at Schroders says in a note. "The outlook from here is much less certain," he says. While higher energy costs are driving up headline inflation, core inflation remains contained, he adds. Meanwhile, domestic demand is weakening, with tighter financial conditions already set to weigh on growth in the eurozone into 2027, Rees says. The ECB's rate increase doesn't smack of the start of a lengthy hiking cycle, and so unless growth or inflation pick up meaningfully, investors shouldn't expect to see rates nearing 3%, Rees says. "Despite the hawkish tone of today's statement and forecasts, we believe the bar for further tightening is high."

 

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